Iran’s survival in the face of war is rooted not only in military and institutional resilience, but in a civilizational identity shaped by Shiʿa Islam and the enduring power of martyrdom.
Wonderful essay, very well written. It's a great primer for understanding the cultural forces undergirding Iran.
Well it's not altogether surprising Americans (and Westerners) display signs of being mentally retarded in general, with years of information manipulation reducing the ability to think critically about nuances and cultural diversity.
Personally I think this conflict could go either way, in the sense while it has a low probability of ending quickly, it could happen based on previous installments. This analytical bias could also blind us to the probabilities in favor of a long conflict. The underappreciated element so far has been Iran's targeting of various other countries (UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan). It's unclear whether these countries have officially entered the war, whether this will give rise to a renewal of Sunni-Shia antagonisms, all the more so because most countries in the region don't share the resilience you wrote about Iran in the event they suffer decapitation strikes.
The other unknowns are signs of new fatwahs, the canceling of the previous fatwah prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons, and in the extreme calling for a jihad.
No, I'm a realist with a penchant for idealism. Your strategy as far as I can tell is based on the hope you're right. And when people behave differently to your expectations, instead of changing the analytical model, you probably double down or forget about mistaken predictions.
I'm not a fan of wars. This winner/loser mentality will get you in a lot of trouble one of these days. Did you know that there are countries in Europe that fought each other in the 1990s because of what happened in the 1600s? I have a feeling Iranians will remember what the USA did to them for a long time.
An excellent and timely analysis. The current crisis following the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei underscores your point: while the West often views these strikes through a purely kinetic or institutional lens, they frequently overlook the "civilizational resilience" you describe. The doctrine of martyrdom doesn't just offer a framework for grief; it probably also is a mechanism for religious mobilization that "decapitation strikes" rarely account for.
Great article. The moment i learned that Khamenei was killed in his house ,i instinctively knew he chose martyrdom to unite the falling state. It makes no sense for him to be home otherwise in the beginning of war. I believe the "smart" military commanders of USA and Israel did the old guy a favour by killing him.
"Don't kid yourself. The Americans and Israelis smell blood."
Yes, indeed. Martyrdom is highly overrated. The Americans and Israelis also smell another step toward their goal of total world domination. Russia is incapacitated by timidity. If the United States takes control of Iran, Russia is next. Then China. Here is a headline from the Global Times
'Chinese FM urges immediate halt to military operations, return to talks on Iran situation'
China has a total lack of understanding of the situation. The situation is grave. Two things those who control the United States have are immense determination and a total lack of integrity.
I wouldn't be so sure the Russians are incapacitated by timidity. Perhaps their style of warfare is different from what we've become used to by the USA.
China and Russia are upending the global order. To do this they will first weaken the USA. If DJT can't find an offramp to this war he started, 2-3 weeks from now everyone will be singing a different tune.
That is exactly what those who control the US want. That is a distinct possibility. But it's hard to believe that a country with so much potential would be so stupid.
China won’t turn on Russia. China is a patient country which plays a long game. It’s been playing both sides, partially complying with US sanctions while sending vast quantities of duel use supplies to Russia. Part of Russia’s North Eastern territory used to belong to China. Meanwhile the US opposes China’s attempts at full dominion over the South China Sea. China is happy to keep playing both sides while it weakens them.
"China is a patient country which plays a long game. It’s been playing both sides, partially complying with US sanctions while sending vast quantities of duel use supplies to Russia."
While China is playing the long game, the hegemonic empire is making advancements toward total world control. The fact that China is trying to play the United States and Russia against each other shows they are trying to overpower both, a fool's game for sure.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. The fatal flaw that will doom the ironically titled "Operation Epic Fury" is the absence of understanding Shi'a Islam. The Western political class is ignorant about and uninterested in the "other side's" history, culture, and strategic needs. The failure to employ "strategic empathy" (see Zachary Shore's work) and groupthink has lead America and Israel to the catastrophe they (sadly "we" since I am an American) now face. Epic Fury has unleashed the furies.
Re: "However, Shiʿism became the vessel through which much of that historical memory was preserved and politicized."
One thing that is not addressed in this article is demographics, and the impact of demographics on the depth/expression of faith.
What percentage of Iran's population is under the age of 30? Approx 40-45%? (UNPD WPP). More? Less?
Are they very religious? Or not?
What does a typical 18 or 22 year old in Tehran want? A decent job? To be able to browse the Internet? To meet girls/boys they are attracted to after school/university classes?
No doubt the answers will vary based on socio-economic status, but that's why we have statistics.
Nationalism/patriotism and faith/religion are two separate things.
I am not convinced that, at least for the 15-29 years demographic cohort, that "Shi'ism is the vessel through which much of [Iran's] historical memory is preserved and politicized".
Thank you for sharing this informative and interesting writing.
I’m sure President Trump and his close advisers are fully across all this detail (irony alert).
I would observe nevertheless that if the Iranian regime has now entrusted the leadership of its 1.2 million strong armed forces to a ‘brigadier general’, ie a NATO one-star equivalent rank, this suggests to me a lack of better (or living) alternatives.
Meaning no criticism or disrespect whatsoever, and recognising that the Israeli government has done itself no favours in Gaza, I do struggle to understand how you or indeed anyone outside of Iran could support such a vile and awful regime, if there is a realistic prospect of change for the better.
My apologies if I have misunderstood your position on this subject.
Wonderful essay, very well written. It's a great primer for understanding the cultural forces undergirding Iran.
Well it's not altogether surprising Americans (and Westerners) display signs of being mentally retarded in general, with years of information manipulation reducing the ability to think critically about nuances and cultural diversity.
Personally I think this conflict could go either way, in the sense while it has a low probability of ending quickly, it could happen based on previous installments. This analytical bias could also blind us to the probabilities in favor of a long conflict. The underappreciated element so far has been Iran's targeting of various other countries (UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan). It's unclear whether these countries have officially entered the war, whether this will give rise to a renewal of Sunni-Shia antagonisms, all the more so because most countries in the region don't share the resilience you wrote about Iran in the event they suffer decapitation strikes.
The other unknowns are signs of new fatwahs, the canceling of the previous fatwah prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons, and in the extreme calling for a jihad.
Even if the fatwahs were reversed today, it's too late.
There's always tomorrow. Just because Westerners have two-day memories doesn't mean everyone else is the same.
So hope is your strategy.
No, I'm a realist with a penchant for idealism. Your strategy as far as I can tell is based on the hope you're right. And when people behave differently to your expectations, instead of changing the analytical model, you probably double down or forget about mistaken predictions.
You *reall* don't know me.
"There's always tomorrow."
That is the rallying cry of a loser.
I'm not a fan of wars. This winner/loser mentality will get you in a lot of trouble one of these days. Did you know that there are countries in Europe that fought each other in the 1990s because of what happened in the 1600s? I have a feeling Iranians will remember what the USA did to them for a long time.
"I have a feeling Iranians will remember what the USA did to them for a long time."
Remembering and doing something about it are two separate things
An excellent and timely analysis. The current crisis following the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei underscores your point: while the West often views these strikes through a purely kinetic or institutional lens, they frequently overlook the "civilizational resilience" you describe. The doctrine of martyrdom doesn't just offer a framework for grief; it probably also is a mechanism for religious mobilization that "decapitation strikes" rarely account for.
Martyrdom is highly overrated.
Great article. The moment i learned that Khamenei was killed in his house ,i instinctively knew he chose martyrdom to unite the falling state. It makes no sense for him to be home otherwise in the beginning of war. I believe the "smart" military commanders of USA and Israel did the old guy a favour by killing him.
Don't kid yourself. The Americans and Israelis smell blood.
They risk smelling that closer to home than we realize. This could go on for a long time.
"Don't kid yourself. The Americans and Israelis smell blood."
Yes, indeed. Martyrdom is highly overrated. The Americans and Israelis also smell another step toward their goal of total world domination. Russia is incapacitated by timidity. If the United States takes control of Iran, Russia is next. Then China. Here is a headline from the Global Times
'Chinese FM urges immediate halt to military operations, return to talks on Iran situation'
China has a total lack of understanding of the situation. The situation is grave. Two things those who control the United States have are immense determination and a total lack of integrity.
I wouldn't be so sure the Russians are incapacitated by timidity. Perhaps their style of warfare is different from what we've become used to by the USA.
China and Russia are upending the global order. To do this they will first weaken the USA. If DJT can't find an offramp to this war he started, 2-3 weeks from now everyone will be singing a different tune.
"Perhaps their style of warfare is different from what we've become used to by the USA."
That's for damn sure. The Russians have taken four years to defeat the Ukrainians and still haven't won.
"China and Russia are upending the global order."
Is that what they are doing?
"To do this they will first weaken the USA."
Never play with your prey — it may escape.
"If DJT can't find an offramp to this war he started, 2-3 weeks from now everyone will be singing a different tune."
His 'offramp' may well be control of another country bordering Russia.
Xi is set to meet Trump next month. Don't be surprised if China turns on Russia.
"Don't be surprised if China turns on Russia."
That is exactly what those who control the US want. That is a distinct possibility. But it's hard to believe that a country with so much potential would be so stupid.
Russia desperately wants to be allowed to join The Club.
China simply hopes that the Americans will turn on them last.
China won’t turn on Russia. China is a patient country which plays a long game. It’s been playing both sides, partially complying with US sanctions while sending vast quantities of duel use supplies to Russia. Part of Russia’s North Eastern territory used to belong to China. Meanwhile the US opposes China’s attempts at full dominion over the South China Sea. China is happy to keep playing both sides while it weakens them.
"China is a patient country which plays a long game. It’s been playing both sides, partially complying with US sanctions while sending vast quantities of duel use supplies to Russia."
While China is playing the long game, the hegemonic empire is making advancements toward total world control. The fact that China is trying to play the United States and Russia against each other shows they are trying to overpower both, a fool's game for sure.
We heard similar wishful thinking with respect to India.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. The fatal flaw that will doom the ironically titled "Operation Epic Fury" is the absence of understanding Shi'a Islam. The Western political class is ignorant about and uninterested in the "other side's" history, culture, and strategic needs. The failure to employ "strategic empathy" (see Zachary Shore's work) and groupthink has lead America and Israel to the catastrophe they (sadly "we" since I am an American) now face. Epic Fury has unleashed the furies.
It doesn't seem the street is much interested in being fooled by the mullahs yet again.
Re: "However, Shiʿism became the vessel through which much of that historical memory was preserved and politicized."
One thing that is not addressed in this article is demographics, and the impact of demographics on the depth/expression of faith.
What percentage of Iran's population is under the age of 30? Approx 40-45%? (UNPD WPP). More? Less?
Are they very religious? Or not?
What does a typical 18 or 22 year old in Tehran want? A decent job? To be able to browse the Internet? To meet girls/boys they are attracted to after school/university classes?
No doubt the answers will vary based on socio-economic status, but that's why we have statistics.
Nationalism/patriotism and faith/religion are two separate things.
I am not convinced that, at least for the 15-29 years demographic cohort, that "Shi'ism is the vessel through which much of [Iran's] historical memory is preserved and politicized".
Am praying that the spirit and culture you describe will hold, in the face of the true expression of evil. 🙏
Thank you for sharing this informative and interesting writing.
I’m sure President Trump and his close advisers are fully across all this detail (irony alert).
I would observe nevertheless that if the Iranian regime has now entrusted the leadership of its 1.2 million strong armed forces to a ‘brigadier general’, ie a NATO one-star equivalent rank, this suggests to me a lack of better (or living) alternatives.
Meaning no criticism or disrespect whatsoever, and recognising that the Israeli government has done itself no favours in Gaza, I do struggle to understand how you or indeed anyone outside of Iran could support such a vile and awful regime, if there is a realistic prospect of change for the better.
My apologies if I have misunderstood your position on this subject.