The Enduring State: Why Iran's Protests are Unlikely to Induce Regime Change
Iran's protests reflect deep social and generational strain, but absent unified leadership, elite fracture and a credible alternative order, they challenge the system without becoming a revolution.
Moments of mass protest in Iran tend to appear suddenly, but they are almost always the product of pressures that have accumulated over years. The current wave was immediately triggered by a sharp currency shock that plunged the Iranian rial to historic lows of 1.4-1.5 million per US dollar on unofficial markets.1 This rapid depreciation eroded purchasin…
