Seizing Nicolás Maduro may have been tactically clean, but it has created a legitimacy crisis likely to draw Washington into prolonged resistance and strategic overreach rather than decisive control.
"Custody" is what a parent has, and it has warm and fuzzy connotations. Therefore I suggest that instead of "custodianship" you substitute the word "dictatorship," which more accurately depicts what is happening, and frankly, I hope the Venezuelans put up a hell of a lot better showing than you imply. There is no "legitimacy crisis" because there is utterly no legitimacy to what has occurred or the American attempted dictatorship. One could even hope that the barbarity of this particular exercise in scorn for all that is decent and right will provoke internal unrest within the States. I guess it's too much to hope for that China or Russia would step in to help. Maybe the Yemenis, who seem to be the only principled nation in existence at the moment, will take action.
Kautilya, since you are well versed in lateral thinking, and looking from a different perspective, I would be interested to hear your take on what the trigger point for launching the operation at this time was.
Thanks Mohammed, I suspect the trigger was not a single event but a convergence of timing pressures. Washington likely judged that Maduro was now exposed with elite cohesion fraying, security compromised and an operational window open. Layer onto that the domestic political incentive for a dramatic, “clean” show of force that resets narratives without committing to occupation.
In short, this looks like a decision that the conditions for a decapitation without occupation play were as favorable as they were ever going to be, even if the longer-term consequences are far harder to control than the initial strike.
"In short, this looks like a decision that the conditions for a decapitation without occupation play were as favorable as they were ever going to be, even if the longer-term consequences are far harder to control than the initial strike."
excellent wrap up to your point that the decision seems to have been based on short term goals rather than longer term projection.
In addition to passive resistance to US control within Venezuelan government institutions, I consider it likely that there will be active protest against the US within the broader society. In particular the poorer class, which Maduro championed, could rebel. If so, then the US will find it necessary to militarily invade Venezuela, with all the problems that entails.
Good piece. Presumably other international actors also have a wide range of options to turn the screws on the Yankee Empire. Would be interested in your thoughts.
Thank you, Jeff, and yes, the deeper issue is that overt US force reliably produces resistance once occupation or external control becomes existential to a society’s sovereignty and national dignity. Washington seems to have forgotten Vietnam, Afghanistan and Korea - cases where populations were willing to absorb immense losses to defeat US power, often when the US military was stronger (during the Cold War) than it is today and when it had a colossal industrial base. Power asymmetry did not translate into political victory then, and it will not now.
More importantly, US leverage collapses inside the core security spheres of Russia and China. These are not peripheral states but civilizational powers with escalation dominance in their regions, deep strategic depth, industrial capacity and nuclear deterrence. NATO’s failure to impose its will in Ukraine has already halted expansion - the alliance’s raison d’être - and exposed the limits of Western coercion against a peer adversary. China, meanwhile, is methodically denying the US military freedom of action in the Western Pacific, ensuring that Washington cannot credibly threaten force without risking catastrophic escalation.
Finally, and decisively, the empire is unraveling from within. Debt saturation, extreme inequality, rising gun violence and civil strife in American cities, the stifling of dissent on US campuses, inflationary pressure and social fragmentation are all colliding with unprecedented external overextension. A global empire built on 800+ military bases is only sustainable if the domestic core is strong. Once that core weakens, external pressure accelerates decline. In short, external actors can apply pressure, but internal decay is what ultimately renders imperial power unsustainable.
The USA's thinking and actions are still stuck in its former hegemonic status without recognizing its major status change, currently, a full step lower in the hierarchy of international dominance to one within a system of multi-polar spheres of influence. Thus, it continues with its "normal" behavior which is international friction with antagonistic nations, in this case, Venezuela and additionally Iran, two petro hyperscalers. Conflict is active. There is a strong possibility that confrontation ignites a more traditional anti-Americanism more than moderately held throughout Latin America. Broader hemispheric hostility could easily cause America recession-caliber wounds of the worst kind, stagflation. Additional damages arise due to the USA's, as you put it, "unraveling from within": the USA's economy hobbles shakily on a crumbling cliff of debt and a standard of living that is below average for an above average number of people. Nonetheless, every year's budget deficit matches the giant one's of recession or war, concomitant with an amateurish ignorance of reality and thus decline. As Bob Dylan once sang, "The Times They Are a-Changin."
"...the deeper issue is that overt US force reliably produces resistance once occupation or external control becomes existential to a society’s sovereignty and national dignity."
I would say the opposite. If American aggression produced resistance, Latin America would have kicked the Americans out decades ago.
This is a sincere question (since I hear a lot of people speak like this) : which US control? They came, took Maduro and went back. In practical terms, where is US control?
seems that Venezuelans are happy with the result and the only people upset are the perpetually protesting. a lot of support for Maduro from western protesters
The future, though imminent, is uncertain. I do; however, believe the current Venezuelan administration has a very clear understanding of what just happened; and what could happen next. My bet is they govern themselves accordingly.
All the key people in the regime, including the Army, have been bought by the CIA. Trump will unfortulately likely succeed through bribery and intimidation. See CIA Analyst EXPOSES Plan A & B for Venezuela | Ron Aledo https://youtu.be/helSwCCGwvQ?si=Vhg7gxgG-18xOoRS via @YouTube
There is no sudden legitimacy vacuum if last elections have been widely recongnized as rigged. If you have state apparatus intact it makes your job of changing the regime easier because you have a machine left for you to simply take over control over it
<<<<<< last elections have been widely recongnized as rigged.<<<<<
Recognized as rigged by You......and likely all the fluently comfortable in the English language, upper middle class living in the urban centers that Westerners listen to in order to get their understanding of conditions and aspirations in Venezuela. But it's what the ten million or so armed members of the various social entities that Chavez formed to govern the country that matter when it comes to legitimacy.
The American supervisors want to get rid of organizations that empower those people not treat it as a machine available to be managed. And those people who have been taught all their adult lives that it is they that are the real government of Venezuela don't want to gotten rid of even if only metaphorically.
People voted with their feet. That's the election that you cannot rig. As per UN 7.7 million fled the country since 2014, not in wartime, or roughly every fifth, most of them are likely the youngest and the brightest of the nation
And Poland voted with their feet after gaining access to the E.U. and Lithuania, and Estonia and Latvia. And those that could for whatever reason voted with their feet from those places and all over actually to go to the U.S.
So we can conclude that at the time when Poles, Lithuanians and Estonians voted with ther feet, the countries to which they went were better their home countries. The same goes with Venezuela: if Venezuelans go to Colombia(which is not very different as country), then Colombia is better then Venezuela
“After Joe Biden took office, his administration reviewed existing sanctions and in 2022 lowered some of the restrictions in the petroleum sector.[3][4] Chevron Corporation, which had existing investments in Venezuela, was allowed to increase production for sales to the U.S.[3][166] As of November 2022, the Biden administration had not imposed any new sanctions on Venezuela and the Associated Press reported that some companies could be flouting the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration.[167] Crude oil exports by July 2023, driven by Chevron and other new agreements allowed under sanctions, rose to their highest level in over three years.[168][169][170] Countries like Cuba, China and Iran continued trading with Venezuela, and China become the main source of Venezuela's petroleum revenue in 2023.[3]
In October 2023, the Biden administration eased some sanctions based on an election agreement signed in Barbados between the Maduro government and opposition parties; an agreement was negotiated in which five people classified as political prisoners were released in exchange for the U.S. partially removing sanctions on the oil, gas and gold industries and secondary trading of bonds”
"Custody" is what a parent has, and it has warm and fuzzy connotations. Therefore I suggest that instead of "custodianship" you substitute the word "dictatorship," which more accurately depicts what is happening, and frankly, I hope the Venezuelans put up a hell of a lot better showing than you imply. There is no "legitimacy crisis" because there is utterly no legitimacy to what has occurred or the American attempted dictatorship. One could even hope that the barbarity of this particular exercise in scorn for all that is decent and right will provoke internal unrest within the States. I guess it's too much to hope for that China or Russia would step in to help. Maybe the Yemenis, who seem to be the only principled nation in existence at the moment, will take action.
>"Custody" is what a parent has, and it has warm and fuzzy connotations
Custody is also going to jail
Kautilya, since you are well versed in lateral thinking, and looking from a different perspective, I would be interested to hear your take on what the trigger point for launching the operation at this time was.
I believe that the extraction of Maduro was the same day of the year as the extraction of Noriega.
It was also the anniversary of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani's assassination.
Good catch. The 5 yr. anniversary of another "preemptive defensive" Trump event,
I missed that. good catch!
the symbolism of the date and the association with the precedent feeds well into the messaging.
Thanks Mohammed, I suspect the trigger was not a single event but a convergence of timing pressures. Washington likely judged that Maduro was now exposed with elite cohesion fraying, security compromised and an operational window open. Layer onto that the domestic political incentive for a dramatic, “clean” show of force that resets narratives without committing to occupation.
In short, this looks like a decision that the conditions for a decapitation without occupation play were as favorable as they were ever going to be, even if the longer-term consequences are far harder to control than the initial strike.
"In short, this looks like a decision that the conditions for a decapitation without occupation play were as favorable as they were ever going to be, even if the longer-term consequences are far harder to control than the initial strike."
excellent wrap up to your point that the decision seems to have been based on short term goals rather than longer term projection.
Perceptive comments, as always.
In addition to passive resistance to US control within Venezuelan government institutions, I consider it likely that there will be active protest against the US within the broader society. In particular the poorer class, which Maduro championed, could rebel. If so, then the US will find it necessary to militarily invade Venezuela, with all the problems that entails.
Good piece. Presumably other international actors also have a wide range of options to turn the screws on the Yankee Empire. Would be interested in your thoughts.
Thank you, Jeff, and yes, the deeper issue is that overt US force reliably produces resistance once occupation or external control becomes existential to a society’s sovereignty and national dignity. Washington seems to have forgotten Vietnam, Afghanistan and Korea - cases where populations were willing to absorb immense losses to defeat US power, often when the US military was stronger (during the Cold War) than it is today and when it had a colossal industrial base. Power asymmetry did not translate into political victory then, and it will not now.
More importantly, US leverage collapses inside the core security spheres of Russia and China. These are not peripheral states but civilizational powers with escalation dominance in their regions, deep strategic depth, industrial capacity and nuclear deterrence. NATO’s failure to impose its will in Ukraine has already halted expansion - the alliance’s raison d’être - and exposed the limits of Western coercion against a peer adversary. China, meanwhile, is methodically denying the US military freedom of action in the Western Pacific, ensuring that Washington cannot credibly threaten force without risking catastrophic escalation.
Finally, and decisively, the empire is unraveling from within. Debt saturation, extreme inequality, rising gun violence and civil strife in American cities, the stifling of dissent on US campuses, inflationary pressure and social fragmentation are all colliding with unprecedented external overextension. A global empire built on 800+ military bases is only sustainable if the domestic core is strong. Once that core weakens, external pressure accelerates decline. In short, external actors can apply pressure, but internal decay is what ultimately renders imperial power unsustainable.
The USA's thinking and actions are still stuck in its former hegemonic status without recognizing its major status change, currently, a full step lower in the hierarchy of international dominance to one within a system of multi-polar spheres of influence. Thus, it continues with its "normal" behavior which is international friction with antagonistic nations, in this case, Venezuela and additionally Iran, two petro hyperscalers. Conflict is active. There is a strong possibility that confrontation ignites a more traditional anti-Americanism more than moderately held throughout Latin America. Broader hemispheric hostility could easily cause America recession-caliber wounds of the worst kind, stagflation. Additional damages arise due to the USA's, as you put it, "unraveling from within": the USA's economy hobbles shakily on a crumbling cliff of debt and a standard of living that is below average for an above average number of people. Nonetheless, every year's budget deficit matches the giant one's of recession or war, concomitant with an amateurish ignorance of reality and thus decline. As Bob Dylan once sang, "The Times They Are a-Changin."
One of the most concise summations I have seen regarding the state of America.
I simply hope China & Russia recognize America is a rogue state and take actions to help America achieve collapse as quickly as possible.
"...the deeper issue is that overt US force reliably produces resistance once occupation or external control becomes existential to a society’s sovereignty and national dignity."
I would say the opposite. If American aggression produced resistance, Latin America would have kicked the Americans out decades ago.
Weakness is what promotes resistance.
This is a sincere question (since I hear a lot of people speak like this) : which US control? They came, took Maduro and went back. In practical terms, where is US control?
Venezuela - Vietnam.... History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes
seems that Venezuelans are happy with the result and the only people upset are the perpetually protesting. a lot of support for Maduro from western protesters
Cool AI picture man, really doesn’t cheapen the analysis you’re trying to make with it’s symbolism so on the nose it deviated my septum.
Kissenger put Putin into Power?.
Chabad Loubavitch.
https://open.substack.com/pub/gearidocolmin/p/will-venezuela-become-americas-ukraine?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&shareImageVariant=overlay&r=i8gm4
The future, though imminent, is uncertain. I do; however, believe the current Venezuelan administration has a very clear understanding of what just happened; and what could happen next. My bet is they govern themselves accordingly.
All the key people in the regime, including the Army, have been bought by the CIA. Trump will unfortulately likely succeed through bribery and intimidation. See CIA Analyst EXPOSES Plan A & B for Venezuela | Ron Aledo https://youtu.be/helSwCCGwvQ?si=Vhg7gxgG-18xOoRS via @YouTube
If that's true, you would think that the army would have already taken control. They have not.
There is no sudden legitimacy vacuum if last elections have been widely recongnized as rigged. If you have state apparatus intact it makes your job of changing the regime easier because you have a machine left for you to simply take over control over it
<<<<<< last elections have been widely recongnized as rigged.<<<<<
Recognized as rigged by You......and likely all the fluently comfortable in the English language, upper middle class living in the urban centers that Westerners listen to in order to get their understanding of conditions and aspirations in Venezuela. But it's what the ten million or so armed members of the various social entities that Chavez formed to govern the country that matter when it comes to legitimacy.
The American supervisors want to get rid of organizations that empower those people not treat it as a machine available to be managed. And those people who have been taught all their adult lives that it is they that are the real government of Venezuela don't want to gotten rid of even if only metaphorically.
People voted with their feet. That's the election that you cannot rig. As per UN 7.7 million fled the country since 2014, not in wartime, or roughly every fifth, most of them are likely the youngest and the brightest of the nation
And Poland voted with their feet after gaining access to the E.U. and Lithuania, and Estonia and Latvia. And those that could for whatever reason voted with their feet from those places and all over actually to go to the U.S.
So we can conclude that at the time when Poles, Lithuanians and Estonians voted with ther feet, the countries to which they went were better their home countries. The same goes with Venezuela: if Venezuelans go to Colombia(which is not very different as country), then Colombia is better then Venezuela
When you strangle a country, people leave. Funny how that works.
Ecuador has a large diaspora, relative to population, but Ecuador is a reliable puppet, so it is left alone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_sanctions_during_the_Venezuelan_crisis
Sanctions were only against individuals, not the country
The only genuinely bad sanction was freezing of payments for state oil company, that's it
Thosw 7.7 mio Venezuelans who left the country after 2014 did so in wake of 2014 protests, not because of some ultra harsh sanctions
So the US did not seize Citgo or Venezuelan gold reserves?
Citgo bankrupted because it owed 20 bil to creditors and Gold reserves are under arrest by the UK, not US
Yeah.....all the sanctions did was freeze the income of the main industry in Venezuela.
and he freezed not income but before-sanctions payments
“After Joe Biden took office, his administration reviewed existing sanctions and in 2022 lowered some of the restrictions in the petroleum sector.[3][4] Chevron Corporation, which had existing investments in Venezuela, was allowed to increase production for sales to the U.S.[3][166] As of November 2022, the Biden administration had not imposed any new sanctions on Venezuela and the Associated Press reported that some companies could be flouting the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration.[167] Crude oil exports by July 2023, driven by Chevron and other new agreements allowed under sanctions, rose to their highest level in over three years.[168][169][170] Countries like Cuba, China and Iran continued trading with Venezuela, and China become the main source of Venezuela's petroleum revenue in 2023.[3]
In October 2023, the Biden administration eased some sanctions based on an election agreement signed in Barbados between the Maduro government and opposition parties; an agreement was negotiated in which five people classified as political prisoners were released in exchange for the U.S. partially removing sanctions on the oil, gas and gold industries and secondary trading of bonds”
Maduro had a chance to relive sanctions!
Why no audio option,,????