Backchannels can open doors at the highest level, but without exclusive control and enforcement of discipline over allies and bureaucracies, access collapses into diluted consensus and failure.
The negotiations with Stalin and Mao were also conducted clearly by much higher calibre individuals working for far more competent Presidents than the current moron , his dumb real estate salesman buddy and his sleazy son in law.
Neither Trump nor either of his unskilled minions have the foggiest idea of the gulf which exists between a business deal and real diplomacy.
Such a low quality of leadership is to be expected in a “civilisation” in it’s decline, rapidly approaching complete decrepitude.
Putin plays with these clowns like a cat does with a mouse, prior to eating it.
Parallel diplomacy is effective when wielded is the simultaneous public distance from and strong connection to institutions. Public distance from official positions to allow flexibility and maneuvering, and strong connection to draw on the institutional memory and resources offered.
When those are not in play, and parallel diplomacy is used because the institutions are not trusted, the interlocutor engages without the sufficient depth to feed their negotiation position and sometimes find themselves having to backtrack, weakening their own and their government’s overall position.
It then becomes a fire that others have to put out, overall it ends up weakening the overall position, reduces clarity, and draws out processes for longer. Particularly if domestic rivalry causes others to actively or passively sabotage the efforts after being left out.
A long piece for saying: Backchannel Diplomacy is only put in place to serve the strategic interests of the evil outlaw empire and can be changed anytime.
I think you should consider the possibility that "Trump" has evaluated Putin and decided that, in his eagerness to achieve a deal, Putin can be taken advantage of by ridiculous variations of good cop/bad cop and the old "I'd love to give you a raise, but I have a partner..." routine. You seem to think that Zelensky and the European hodge-podge can seriously have an impact on a man/team that can and does make all the decisions whenever it wants to, from land grabs to open seas piracy. Trump is not engaged in the same war Putin is, and he doesn't think he's losing.
I am not sure that Trump or his underlings are that clever. Rather, Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. He wants to please everyone.
If Trump wished to shut the europeans and Zelenskii up, he need only announce loudly and publicly that if they persist on provoking Russia, the United States will not ride to their rescue this time. They will be on their own.
Exactly right.
The negotiations with Stalin and Mao were also conducted clearly by much higher calibre individuals working for far more competent Presidents than the current moron , his dumb real estate salesman buddy and his sleazy son in law.
Neither Trump nor either of his unskilled minions have the foggiest idea of the gulf which exists between a business deal and real diplomacy.
Such a low quality of leadership is to be expected in a “civilisation” in it’s decline, rapidly approaching complete decrepitude.
Putin plays with these clowns like a cat does with a mouse, prior to eating it.
A marvelous reveal of behind-the-curtains diplomacy. Thank you so much.
Marvellous, comprehensive, and academic work. Thank you.
In a just world this would be being posted in the mass media and think tanks, and your labour of love rewarded commensurately.
Trump is simply a weak leader. Not much better than K'Mala would have been.
Thank you.
Great analysis as always.
LF
Parallel diplomacy is effective when wielded is the simultaneous public distance from and strong connection to institutions. Public distance from official positions to allow flexibility and maneuvering, and strong connection to draw on the institutional memory and resources offered.
When those are not in play, and parallel diplomacy is used because the institutions are not trusted, the interlocutor engages without the sufficient depth to feed their negotiation position and sometimes find themselves having to backtrack, weakening their own and their government’s overall position.
It then becomes a fire that others have to put out, overall it ends up weakening the overall position, reduces clarity, and draws out processes for longer. Particularly if domestic rivalry causes others to actively or passively sabotage the efforts after being left out.
Very interesting article Kautilya.
Fully agreed. Thank you for this important nuance.
In short, the current US administration are hacks.
1. The West in general and the United States in particular have demonstrated time and again that they never will deal in good faith with Russia.
2. The Russian leadership refuses to admit this basic fact to itself.
A long piece for saying: Backchannel Diplomacy is only put in place to serve the strategic interests of the evil outlaw empire and can be changed anytime.
I think you should consider the possibility that "Trump" has evaluated Putin and decided that, in his eagerness to achieve a deal, Putin can be taken advantage of by ridiculous variations of good cop/bad cop and the old "I'd love to give you a raise, but I have a partner..." routine. You seem to think that Zelensky and the European hodge-podge can seriously have an impact on a man/team that can and does make all the decisions whenever it wants to, from land grabs to open seas piracy. Trump is not engaged in the same war Putin is, and he doesn't think he's losing.
I am not sure that Trump or his underlings are that clever. Rather, Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. He wants to please everyone.
If Trump wished to shut the europeans and Zelenskii up, he need only announce loudly and publicly that if they persist on provoking Russia, the United States will not ride to their rescue this time. They will be on their own.
Watch european tails tuck between european legs.
when I speak of Trump I refer to his handlers. If I were Putin I'd be mighty insulted by the bs tactics being used.
Putin and the Russian leadership want so badly to be allowed to join The Club.