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Putin's Wager on Time: What Three Centuries of Russian Strategy Reveal About Victory in Ukraine
Putin may be wagering that time, not territory, will ultimately reshape the European security order in Russia's favor.
Aug 16
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Why Russia Advances Slowly: A Century of Russian Operational Art from Svechin to Gerasimov
Russia's slow advance in Ukraine is better understood through a century of operational thought that prioritizes the progressive destruction of the…
Aug 6
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Can Iran Break the Political Foundations of US Power in the Middle East?
Iran does not need to expel the US from the Gulf. It only needs to make the American-led regional order progressively more precarious, expensive and…
Jul 30
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The Samson Files III: The Nuclear Threshold and How America Concluded Israel Had the Bomb
US intelligence shifted from relying on inspections to assessing latent nuclear capability, fundamentally reshaping American policy toward Israel's…
Jul 26
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Iranian Missiles Alone Will Not End America's Presence in the Middle East
Iran can raise the costs of America's military presence in the Middle East, but permanently forcing out the US would require collapsing the strategic…
Jul 23
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Data, Democracy and Statecraft: Trump's China Allegation Through the Lens of History
Political data has become the strategic intelligence resource of the twenty-first century, making modern influence operations an evolution of…
Jul 19
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Why Moscow Still Talks to Trump: Three Hypotheses on the Logic of Russian Diplomacy
Russia's continued engagement with Trump reflects not faith in American policy change, but three complementary strategic calculations rooted in Russian…
Jul 16
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The Ankara Summit: NATO's Strategy is No Longer Victory But Attrition
The Ankara summit institutionalized a strategy of endurance rather than one of resolution. If history has taught anything, betting on exhausting Russia…
Jul 9
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